Substitutive Measures in absence of an IMF Program

Dr. Ausnain Naveed Khan

In the absence of an IMF program, the Government of Pakistan should promptly implement a comprehensive set of measures to stabilize the country’s economy. First, a dollar amnesty scheme should be introduced to encourage Pakistanis to deposit their undocumented dollars in local FC accounts, offering decent interest rates on those balances. Second, restructuring foreign debt by seeking haircuts and extending tenor would help alleviate the burden and create room for sustainable economic development. Third, a significant reduction in interest rates, possibly by 15%, would reduce the government’s fiscal deficit and stimulate private sector growth. If banks fail to lend at reduced rates, a scheme should be launched to allow the public to directly place Treasury bills, enabling government borrowing and addressing liquidity concerns. Furthermore, demonetizing 5000 and 1000 rupee notes would combat black money and enhance financial transparency. The government should also impose restrictions on non-essential imports to reduce the trade deficit and conserve foreign exchange reserves. Efforts to reduce oil and gas imports, even through rationing if necessary, should be undertaken. By using moral suasion, the government can renegotiate energy agreements with local producers for a five-year period. Taxing real estate at market rates and extending taxation to retail/wholesale traders and the agriculture chain will broaden the tax base and increase revenue. Additionally, the government should explore private-public partnerships or consider closing down loss-making State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) while providing support to affected employees. Lastly, reducing the size of the government by eliminating useless ministries and regulatory agencies would further streamline operations and reduce expenditure. By implementing these measures, Pakistan can chart a path towards economic stability and sustainable growth.

 

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