Political temperature is high, and uncertainty abounds. The opposition is on a roll with the no confidence motion, and an ensuing war of words touching some sensitive nerve points. Interestingly, the 11-party united opposition front means different things to different quarters. The government portrays it as an alliance of the corrupt, to evade accountability and malign state institutions. For PML-N, the PDM is the way to settle its score with two particular individuals and the establishment at large, whereas for PPP it is more of a tactical fight against the present government. If the opposition, particularly PPP thinks that rallies will push the Prime Minister to an extent where he would resign, that seems highly unlikely. In 2014, the prolonged sit-in by the PTI could not displace the government. Why should it be any different this time?
However, Opposition’s current line of attack can create enough pressure for the establishment to visibly distance itself from the PTI government. If that happens, Punjab is where the opposition can make a dent. That is PTI’s political Achilles’ heel. Moreover, if somehow the PDM is able to capitalise on general public discontent stemming from economic hardships, it could give the opposition much more momentum. But all this of course is contingent upon the PDM staying unified on its unyielding campaign and not letting the already visible cracks deepen within its own ranks.
While the scheduled elections are not due till the end of 2023, PTI ticket holders are beginning to realise there is no guarantee that the situation will ease up any time soon, even if the government survives the coming months. There are other issues too. The PTI government has struggled with governance from its first day in office but never in the last three years did it face the possibly existential threat that it faces today. This political matrimony allowed the PTI to stumble from one crisis to another, without ever having to worry about its thin parliamentary numbers, or the loyalty of its coalition partners, or even the pulls and pushes of foreign policy and inter-state relations. The economic situation and concerns about the PTI’s ability to manage the ship through these stormy waters; and second, the changing nature of the relationship between the PTI leadership and the establishment’s high command. Both these factors will be tested in the coming weeks.
The government must realise that the solution to the present political impasse does not lie in more political noise. Instead the government should focus on neutralising political flashpoints such as food inflation and governance vacuum in Punjab, and engage the opposition, or at least some fragments of it, in a political dialogue. Despite all the noise, if the government can plays its cards well, it could smoothly sail through till the next elections, but fueling the fire further is not going to help. One thing however is clear: the 2023 elections are going to be much more contentious and cut-throat and therefore performance is where the PTI now needs to focus the most.