Gigantic floods, a worldwide recession and internal political schisms have increased Pakistan’s political and economic challenges. It is a serious situation that, if not managed properly, might lead to civil chaos and greater militarization. According to a recent report, the IMF mentioned this scenario.
PTI chairman Imran Khan continues to hold public revive in an attempt to demand early elections. As an ex-prime minister, Imran Khan understands the need of giving a sitting government time to cope with natural disasters that is flood. He should redirect his political campaign towards flood assistance for few months, and at the end of this tragedy, people will flock around him even more. The government should also stop registering FIRs against PTI leaders and inform its interior minister.
The political chairman who gets an already anarchic situation that would present the resolution of an art
Political squabbling has reached a point where we cannot band together in the face of natural disasters such as floods or coronas. We are rapidly approaching a point where people will take matters into their own hands in response to the ruling classes’ insensitivity.
As a preliminary step, all political parties should urge the Election Commission to postpone the September by-elections.
Pakistanis are dealing with inflation of more than 27%, the highest in the last 50 years and it is expected to rise further following the floods. The Pakistan Rupee will face renewed pressure as a result of flood-related losses and at a time when commodities prices are at an all-time high.
Because the Ukraine war has no end in sight, the global recession and record inflation are likely to last long into 2023. The US economy has contracted for two consecutive quarters, Europe has experienced record inflation of more than 9% and China’s economy is struggling to grow.
As a result of the global recession, our exports will struggle to increase and foreign investment will dry up, adding to the burden on our foreign order.
The Ministry of Finance has cut the GDP growth objective for fiscal year 2022-23 by half. The slowing of GDP will make tax collection more difficult, and we may struggle to meet fiscal targets.
Pakistan already lacks about three trillion rupees in tax revenue and USD 15 billion in foreign exchange, and has participated in over 15 IMF programs since 1980. All of the foregoing political and economic variables exacerbate our issues and have a negative impact on our ability to survive.
In a statement issued yesterday, President Arif Alvi spoke of behind-the-scenes attempts to bring different stakeholders together to build an agreement on how to address the national political and economic crises. President Alvi needs the backing of the media and the deep state to establish a national survival plan in the short term, leading up to the next general elections.
President Alvi must make an immediate public call to leaders of all major political parties to convene at the presidency to discuss important issues. President Avi is facing a political reckoning. He took a bold stance yesterday, asking the PTI chairman to defend his statement about the new army chief’s appointment.
President Alvi must now persuade the PTI chairman to attend the meeting of political leaders, which he has not done in many years. To confront the country’s political and economic issues, all political leaders must come together to build a national consensus.
Every stakeholder in the country must recognize that we are one of the world’s worst-positioned governments to manage a huge population in the face of existential risks such as climate change/floods and an an nihilistic Hindutva-centric neighbor.
According to Bloomberg, Pakistan is only second to Egypt among the 20 countries with the highest populations in terms of gross capital formation to manage its population. China ranks first among these 20 countries, with gross capital formation equal to about 50% of GDP, while India and Bangladesh rank sixth and seventh, with gross capital formation equal to more than 30% of GDP. Pakistan ranks towards the bottom of the list, with gross capital formation accounting for less than 15% of GDP.
There is a tremendous emphasis and duty on the armed forces to solve Pakistan’s challenges. Apart from security problems, the Pakistan army chief is expected to come out during every p It is time for the civil side to carry its burdens, and the armed forces should provide the civil side as much room and support as possible. Because of the security climate in the Afghan corridor, the security establishment has played an outsized role in Pakistan’s political structure for over 40 years. There is an ongoing attempt to restore much-needed political equilibrium, which must be accelerated political and economic crises.
President Alvi should take the initiative to address this critical need and convene a meeting of all stakeholders to discuss how to overcome the severe political and economic crisis. All stakeholders must recognize the gravity of the situation and respond to President Alvi’s request, putting the wellbeing of Pakistan’s impoverished people first. Excessive force or too ambitious aims will be unhelpful in addressing the grave national issue, and all parties must come to the table with an open mind.
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