Introduction:
Pakistan’s political landscape has been dominated by powerful elites and circles, leaving the general populace with limited influence in political affairs. With ongoing efforts to eliminate a popular political party through state measures, it is impossible to predict the political environment solely based on public perceptions. This article seeks to analyze the current state of Pakistani politics and predict the future government setup based on the considerations of prominent elites.This has prevented Leaders from seizing power, despite their popularity.
Post May 9 Snerio:
In the wake of the May 9 events,this political history is being repeated, and ongoing efforts are being made to eliminate a popular political party through state measures.In these conditions, it is impossible to predict the political environment only based on the public’s current perceptions; but one must also consider the current considerations of the prominent elite with reference to the future political system.
Coalition Government:
If general elections were held today, it is likely that a coalition government would be formed with the Jahangir Tareen Group, PML-Q, ANP, Maulana, People’s Party, MQM, BAP, and others. However, it is too early to predict who the Prime Minister of this possible coalition government will be. It is unlikely that Bilawal Zardari will hold this position as powerful circles view him as too young and immature. PML-N may come as another major party in the National Assembly but may not be part of the government and may prefer to sit on the opposition benches. However, PML-N can lead a coalition government in Punjab.
Tehreek-e-Insaf:
Tehreek-e-Insaf will still have a presence in the National Assembly with between 40 and 50 seats, with a likelihood of gaining the same in the Punjab Assembly. The former ruling party may remain a major party in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. It appears that the 2008 arrangement is being repeated when the People’s Party government was formed at the centre and the PML-N government was formed in Punjab.
Conclusion:
It is clear that the current thirteen-party government coalition was formed only to get rid of Imran Khan, and this goal has almost been achieved through administrative and state measures. However, the cover partnership between these parties will remain for the next five years to ensure that Imran Khan does not return. The next government setup will also be a mix-up under which the PML-N will probably take over the government in Punjab and the PPP, along with other coalition parties, will take over the government at the centre. PML-N would prefer to remain in the opposition at the centre so that it can regain its lost public popularity through opposition while enjoying the government in Punjab.