Climate change has far-reaching global implications, evidenced by the significant disruptions in weather patterns. South Asia, a region highly susceptible to climate change, is witnessing a profound impact on its agricultural sector. The rising temperatures attributed to greenhouse gas emissions have become a defining characteristic of the changing climate, posing challenges to crop growth, yield, and quality, thereby affecting the agrarian economies of South Asia.
South Asia encompasses diverse geographical landscapes and climatic conditions, with varying degrees of vulnerability to climate change. The Indo-Gangetic Plains, coastal regions of Bangladesh, and the Himalayan foothills as particularly susceptible areas. These regions heavily depend on agriculture and face numerous challenges due to rising temperatures, erratic rainfall patterns, and an increased frequency of extreme weather events.
For instance, Bangladesh, highly vulnerable to cyclones and flooding, has experienced significant agricultural losses and food shortages due to climate change-induced disasters. Similarly, in the Indian state of Bihar, changes in precipitation patterns and prolonged droughts have severely impacted crop production, leading to food insecurity among vulnerable communities.
Pakistan, ranked among the top ten countries most affected by climate change according to the Global Climate Risk Index 2021, recently experienced devastating floods in 2022. These floods affected 33 million people, displaced over 200,000 individuals, claimed more than 1,700 lives, and caused extensive damage to approximately 3 million infrastructures and the agricultural sector, resulting in an estimated economic loss of $16 billion. The World Bank estimates that about 400 million people in South Asia are at risk of food insecurity due to climate change impacts. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) reports that South Asia accounted for 27% of the global undernourished population in 2020-2021, with approximately 199.2 million people experiencing hunger.
The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) warns that climate change could potentially reduce wheat yields by up to 50% in certain parts of South Asia by 2050. These alarming figures emphasize the urgent need for action to address the impacts of climate change on food security in the region.
The agricultural sector in South Asia faces additional hurdles due to shifting precipitation patterns. Erratic rainfall distribution and prolonged dry spells are increasingly prevalent, negatively impacting soil moisture, crop irrigation, and overall agricultural productivity. Consequently, water scarcity and drought conditions further strain food production systems, necessitating the adaptation of agricultural practices to ensure food security.
Extreme weather events, such as cyclones, heatwaves, and floods, have emerged as some of the most devastating consequences of climate change in South Asia. These recurrent phenomena disrupt planting and harvesting seasons, damage infrastructure, and exacerbate soil erosion, resulting in a decline in food production and heightened vulnerability for farmers and communities reliant on agriculture.
Vulnerability to climate change in South Asia goes beyond geographical factors and is intertwined with socio-economic dynamics. Poverty, limited resource access, and weak infrastructure worsen the impact of climate change on food security. Communities in impoverished regions often lack the financial means to invest in climate-resilient agriculture or cope with climate-related shocks. The limited access to education and healthcare further reduces the adaptive capacity of vulnerable populations.
Changing climate conditions in South Asia, including rising temperatures and altered rainfall patterns, have significantly reduced crop yields and compromised agricultural produce quality. Studies by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) project a potential decline of up to 30% in wheat and rice yields in the region by 2050. This decline poses a significant threat to food security, given the region’s reliance on these staple crops. A study published in the journal Science suggests that each 1-degree Celsius temperature increase could lead to a 10% reduction in rice yields due to the combined impacts of rising temperatures and precipitation changes.
Warmer temperatures and shifting rainfall patterns create favorable conditions for pests and diseases. The incidence of crop-damaging pests like locusts has risen, causing substantial losses for farmers. Livestock production is also affected as rising temperatures and altered precipitation impact grazing lands, feed availability, and water resources. Similarly, warming oceans and disrupted marine ecosystems decrease fish stocks and income for coastal communities dependent on fisheries.
The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) highlights that climate change-related factors could reduce agricultural productivity by 9-25% in South Asia by 2080. The International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) estimates that climate change-induced heat stress may decrease livestock production in the region by 10-15% by 2030. The World Bank reports that climate change impacts could result in a 10-30% decline in fish catch from South Asian fisheries by 2050.
Addressing climate change impacts on South Asian agriculture requires robust adaptation and resilience through international cooperation. This entails sharing best practices, providing financial and technological support, and promoting sustainable agricultural practices. Investment in climate-resilient infrastructure is essential to improve food storage and distribution. Climate change diplomacy should prioritize emission reduction, climate financing, and technology transfer to support sustainable agriculture in the region. The critical importance of research, innovation, and technology transfer in South Asia lies in their potential to effectively address climate change and enhance food security. Investing in scientific research yields valuable insights, while collaboration and knowledge sharing drive the development of innovative solutions. Technology transfer, particularly for smallholder farmers, plays a pivotal role in implementing these innovations. By seizing these opportunities and taking a comprehensive approach, South Asia can bolster agricultural productivity, foster resilience, and ensure food security in the face of climate change.
The writer, Mehr un Nisa, holds an MPhil in Peace and Conflict Studies from NDU and currently serves as Director of Research at Kashmir Institute of International Relations.