Everyone is analyzing the declining economic situation of Pakistan in their own way, but what are the real facts?.And what are the internal and external motivations that are causing the deterioration of the Pakistani economy .No member of the intellectual class can deny that if China is gradually becoming an economic champion, on the other hand, it is influencing all the affairs of the world in one way or another.
The best example of this is that at the moment Due to the slowdown in the Chinese economy, the dollar rate is increasing due to the oil demand in China, which has an impact on Pakistan as well. Due to the recent increase in the value of the dollar, a sharp increase in inflation is possible. When we saw the spurt in dollar demand in the light of the International Monetary Fund’s guidance, where the rupee has continued to depreciate, the inflationary storm has unannounced. Two or three days later, the Pakistani currency decreased further in the interbank market.
After that, at the end of the business, one American dollar was seen at the highest price of 303, that is, the value of the Pakistani rupee decreased by 63.0%. It has not decreased but continues to depreciate immediately after the appreciation of the rupee immediately after the standby agreement with the IMF. Although there was an impression that the rupee would stabilize due to the arrival of dollars in the country after the standby agreement, initially the price of one dollar decreased from 286 rupees to 275 rupees. The price of 303 rupees, while its price in the open market has reached 306, that is, the value of the rupee has decreased by more than seven percent in sixty days, while the Pakistani rupee has weakened by more than 23 percent in about eight months of this year.
It is believed that the main reason for this is import payments, which is also reflected in the latest current account figures of $80 million in July. Which has been negative again after being positive for four consecutive months. However, it should be kept in the context that the IMF demanded the Pakistani authorities to end the embargo as soon as the standby agreement was signed. Since then, we have been facing heavy losses, while another reason for this is that interest rates have increased in the United States. Similarly, due to the rising international oil prices, the slowdown in the Chinese economy has led to an increase in oil exports to China.
Decreasing demand is also leading to an increase in the value of the dollar In retrospect, the policy of pursuing open market parity in the country was a major flaw, as it is difficult to maintain and hence it is seen that the open market is driving the formal i.e. interbank market. The inflation coming from the country can be estimated from the fact that the prices of petroleum products have already increased by forty rupees in a month. While the prices of smuggled oil from Iran in Balochistan are also thirty rupees per The liter has increased, but Iranian petrol has nothing to do with the rise and fall of the rupee, but the most powerful people doing illegal business do not feel any fear. At this time, the need is that the rupee To maintain the value, due to which the storm of inflation can be stopped, the government should manage to increase the export as well as the increase in the import, because without this, the value of the rupee will continue to weaken.