The by-elections in Punjab on July 17 could be a litmus test for both the PTI and the ruling-PML-N to bag Pakistan’s most populous and politically important province.
Imran Khan’s PTI lost its razor-thin majority in the Punjab Assembly in April, after 25 of its lawmakers sided with its rival, the PML-N, in the election for chief minister.
In next month’s by-polls, the PTI is hoping to claw back to power in the province.
On the other side of the ring is the PML-N, which needs a big win to ensure that its newly-appointed chief minister, Hamza Shehbaz, retains his seat of power.
Twenty provincial constituencies are on the ballot after the Election Commission unseated 25 MPAs for voting against party lines. Of the 25, five lawmakers were on reserved seats and 20 on contestable seats.
Political pundits are expecting a tough contest between opponents PML-N and PTI in the by-polls as the majority of the 20 defecting PTI MPAs have hitched their wagons to the PML-N.
It is also important to mention that in the 2018 general elections, of the 20 MPAs who won the polls, 10 contested as independent candidates and later joined the PTI due to the efforts of businessman and politician, Jahangir Khan Tareen.
Who could win?
Here are some of the factors that go in each party’s favour:
PTI:
PTI has charged up and motivated voters, who are sold on Imran Khan’s foreign conspiracy narrative. These voters could give a tough time to the PML-N in constituencies that fall in urban areas, by turning up in large numbers on election day.
Strong local candidates like Yasir Khan Jatoi and Mozzam Khan Jatoi in Muzaffargarh or Saif Khosa in DG Khan can give the PTI an edge in five constituencies.
By-elections are being held at a time of uncertainty, when it is unclear if the general election will be held this year or in 2023. This could translate into a lacklustre election campaign by PML-N candidates, who are unsure for how long they will remain MPAs, and this could also mean a low voter turnout.
PML-N:
Tickets have been awarded to returning candidates, who won in 2018. These electables bring their own vote back.
PML-N is the ruling party and it is highly unlikely for a party in power to lose a by-election.
The PML-N candidates also have the support of the PPP and other PDM parties.
In by-elections, local politics, family standing and influence matter more than party politics.
Of all the by-elections held in Punjab from 2018 to 2021, the PML-N won a majority, even when the PTI was in power. Out of the 29 national and provincial constituencies which were up for grabs in Punjab, the PML-N was successful in 14, while the PTI won 10.
It is also important to mention that in the 2018 general elections, of the 20 MPAs who won the polls, 10 contested as independent candidates and later joined the PTI due to the efforts of businessman and politician, Jahangir Khan Tareen.
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